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8/22/2020

COVID — U.S. Compared to World

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​Sgt Joe Friday said "Just the facts ma'am." There continues to be misinformation about COVID data, implying the U.S. does not have a problem or that it has a problem commensurate with other countries. On the surface, a country with 4% of global population and 20% of global COVID deaths shows that the U.S. at a minimum has a worse problem than many countries.  All the factual reports I've read and listened to indicate the same, as do the COVID data, and they show that the U.S. problem is substantially worse than most other major countries.

U.S. problem is not commensurate with Europe. It came up again that U.S. COVID problem is commensurate with European countries. The facts are that U.S. daily deaths from COVID is currently 10 times the EU (worse than Spain, UK, and Italy), and new daily cases is 4 times the EU.  Also, of major countries, the U.S. is either the worst regarding current COVID data or in the top 3, and combined with that U.S. is the only major country that does not offer universal healthcare (to add to the number of unisured in the country, millions are losing healthcare due to unemployment). Although Spain, UK and Italy have higher per capita deaths, the U.S. daily per capita death rate from COVID is 5 times Spain, 25 times UK, and 6 times Italy. U.S. daily deaths per capita have been increasing or remaining steady over the last month, while rates for those three comparison countries have decreased.

Global Data Snapshot. A detailed snapshot from two global data sources is attached: Worldometer (international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers), and Our World in Data (collaborative efforts between researchers at the University of Oxford and the non-profit organization Global Change Data Lab). Both show essentially the same thing, but it is very difficult to look at this type of data so I did a ranking system and put in some other relevant information: whether a country is part of EU, UK, U.S., whether it is one of the major industrial countries, and whether it's in the top 10 countries, and whether the country has universal healthcare. I filtered the results only for major countries, but you can unfilter or unhide all the details.

No Evidence of COVID Data Inflation for Political Purposes. It also came up that people are inflating COVID data for political purposes. Evidence of that would be good to have because I find none. And similar to misinformation about voter fraud, evidence for a widespread problem (not just isolated problems) is important. The fact that George Floyd tested positive for COVID does not mean the hospital listed it as a COVID death. Possibly they did, but: a) Reuters said he "tested positive for the coronavirus, his autopsy showed, but the infection was not listed as a factor in his death," and b) even if the hospital reported it as a COVID death that does not discount the body of data collected and managed by CDC, Johns Hopkins, or the two global sources above.

Agreement on COVID Facts. This is representative of the continual battle to agree on basic facts. Tor, do you agree with the facts below:
  1. The U.S. is in the top 3 worst major countries globally in terms of new daily cases and deaths per capita?
  2. The U.S. is worse than any European country and the EU as a whole in terms of new daily cases and deaths per capita?
  3. The U.S. is one of the worst major countries globally in terms of total COVID cases and deaths?


There should be no disagreement on facts, yet we spend so much time disputing facts that it clouds already challenging medical realities of COVID.  Hope you read this information.

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8/14/2020

Under Control - Trump Covid Misinformation

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Video: youtu.be/9O0R8F5q_sQ

1) Context:
a) Medical facts should be nonpartisan, but they are not. Preventable deaths should be nonpartisan, but they are not. Covid is not anyone’s fault in U.S., but presidential misinformation/attacks and a lack of federal response was political and likely contributed to tens of thousands of deaths, if not more. And will continue to do so. Couple relevant quotes follow (Item #2), plus Trump’s statements in parallel with Covid statistics below (Item #3).

b) Stats below are estimates of reduction in Covid deaths in U.S. if there were a timely federal response:
  • 40-62%, Columbia University: https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/05/21/coronavirus, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/study-finds-earlier-coronavirus-restrictions-us-saved-36k/story?id=70808611, https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/21/860077940/u-s-could-have-saved-36-000-lives-if-social-distancing-started-1-week-earlier-st
  • 55%: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/coronavirus-distancing-deaths.html
  • 70-99%: https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/19/faster-response-prevented-most-us-covid-19-deaths/


2) Quotes:“We are facing two big challenges: the virus and the misinformation around the virus. Some days I can’t decide which one is worse than the other. It’s a huge problem.” Dr. Ashish Jha, Harvard global health institute director.


“Well now you know what it’s like.” Medical colleagues in the Congo talking to Anne Rimoin, UCLA Epidemiologist who has spent her career dealing with infectious diseases. Regarding presidential misinformation and the credibility smearing of Dr. Fauci. 




3) Trump Statements and Covid Timeline.

Under control:
Sources: Covid data - Wikipedia (under-representation from CDC data), quotes from multiple media sources.


  • 1-22-20: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China.” (0 dead, 0 daily deaths, 1 daily cases)
  • 1-30-20: “We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment.” (0 dead, 0 daily deaths, 1 daily cases)
  • 2-23-20: “We have it very much under control in this country. Very interestingly, we’ve had no death.” (0 dead, 0 daily deaths, 1 daily case)
  • 2-24-20: “The coronavirus which is, uh, very much under control in our country.”  (0 dead, 0 daily deaths, 2 daily cases)
  • 2-26-20: “It’s going to disappear.” (0 dead, 0 daily deaths, 1 daily case)
  • 2-27-20: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.” (0 dead, 0 daily death, 1 daily case)
  • 2-29-30: “And everything is under control. They’re very very cool. I mean they’ve done it. And they’ve done it well. Everything is under control.” (1 dead, 1 daily death, 5 daily cases)
  • 3-6-20: “You have to be calm. It will go away.” (14 dead, 3 daily deaths, 77 daily cases)
  • "I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.” Regarding cruise ship in San Francisco with 21 people who tested positive. (31 dead, 5 daily deaths, 291 daily cases)
  • 3-10-20: “It will go away.” (31 dead, 5 daily deaths, 291 daily cases)
  • 3-15-20: “It’s something that we have, uh, tremendous control over.” (62 dead, 6 daily deaths, 676 daily cases)
  • 3-30-20: “You know it’s going away. And it will go away. And we’re going to have a great victory.” (2,986 dead, 555 daily deaths, 20,463 daily cases)
  • 3-31-30: “It’s going to go away, hopefully at the end of the month. And if not, it hopefully will be soon after that.” (3,807 dead, 521 daily deaths, 25,305 daily cases)
  • 4-7-20: “Which I’m right about. It did go aw ... it will go away.” (12,674 dead, 1,927 daily deaths, 30,512 daily cases)
  • 4-28-20: “I said it’s going away, and it is going away.” (52,518 dead, 2,204 daily deaths, 24,359 daily cases)
  • 4-29-20: “It’s gonna leave, it’s gonna be gone. It’s gonna be eradicated, and it might take longer.” (55,054 dead, 2,536 daily deaths, 26,869 daily cases)
  • 5-8-20: “This is going to go away without a vaccine.” (71,395 dead, 1,695 daily deaths, 27,095 daily cases)
  • 5-11-20: “We have prevailed.” “Coronavirus numbers are looking MUCH better, going down almost everywhere.”  (74,735 dead, 840 daily deaths, 17,777 daily cases)
  • May: “These models have been wrong since day one. They’ve been so wrong, they’ve been so out of whack.” (97,959 dead, 605 daily deaths, 21,686 daily cases). The models predicted 135,000 dead by August. It is over 165,000 dead as of mid August.
  • 6-17-20: The pandemic is “fading away. It’s going to fade away.” (110,123 dead, 742 daily deaths, 23,620 daily cases)
  • 7-2-20: “And the crisis, uh, is being handled. We are likewise getting under control.” (118,369 dead, 871 daily deaths, 54,869 daily cases)
  • 7-17-20: “ I will be right eventually. You know, I said, it’s going to disappear. I’ll say it again.” (128,146 dead, 936 daily deaths, 76,091 daily cases)
  • 7-18-20: “We have embers and we do have flames. Florida became more flame like. But uh, it’s going to be under control.”  (129,025 dead, 879 daily deaths, 65,389 daily cases)
  • 7-19-20: “This virus is going to disappear.” (129,537 dead, 512 daily deaths, 63,591 daily cases)
  • 7-21-20: “It will probably, unfortunately, get worse before it gets better.” (130,966 dead, 1,039 daily deaths, 63,496 daily cases)
  • 7-27-20: “I think it’s under control ... it is what it is ... it’s under control as much as you can control it.” (136,917 dead, 1,079 daily deaths, 54,806 daily cases)
  • 8-5-20: “My view is the schools should open. This thing’s going away. It will go away like things go away.” (146,831 dead, 1,328 daily deaths, 51,884 daily cases)
  • Mid August (CDC): 165,000 deaths, 1,500 daily deaths, 56,000 daily cases.

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8/8/2020

“They Should:” A Non-Partisan Plea against Trumpism

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​When things are great, why say best ever? When things are good, why say great? When things are bad, why say good? When things are, why say they are not? Most troubling — when things are not at all, why say they are? And why claim fake news for inconvenient facts; why conduct immature and demeaning character attacks against anyone who identifies these falsehoods or opposes a viewpoint?

The greatest disservice is not the “one” who does it, it’s the “all” who support it. Supporters use partisan ends to rationalize unjustifiable means. Conservatives — politicians, pundits, and citizens alike — can stop this behavior while still staying true to their political party; JUST STAND UP AND SAY “NO!” Some do, but most give strength to hyper partisanship and to a compulsive-lying extreme narcissist by passively and actively enabling this atmosphere. Even religious people discard their “what would Jesus do” ideals, sitting idly by with self-soothing rationale that the president is an imperfect vessel. Excuses abound; well HE did it first, she’s JUST as bad, OTHER politicians lie — but that’s a childlike approach to an adult problem.

Yes they’re “winning,” but winning this way means we’re all losing. Conservatives should stand up and challenge this president even at the expense of their own party gains; that’s what integrity is. They should support truth over falsehoods, honor over personal attacks, greater good over personal insecurity and narcissism — even at the expense of partisan advantage. They should have integrity.

Some have, I would, they should.

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